One of These Things Is Not Like the Others

not-the-great-depression1Think of this chart (from Donald Marron, via Greg Mankiw) the next time you hear someone say that we are in the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression.  Based on GDP, it appears we’re in the worst downturn since 1958 — and since I was born that year, I reject the idea that it was a long time ago.  If GDP declines by another 20 basis points or so, it then may be technically accurate to talk of the worst decline since the Depression — but the comparison will be no less misleading.

Back in March I highlighted unemployment data showing that the jobless rate was not (yet) as bad as 1982.  With three more months of job losses, we’re getting closer –  the May rate of 9.4% is closing in on 1982’s full-year rate of 9.7%.  But while many economists expect the rate to climb to over 10%, the rate of increase in joblessness has declined for four months in a row, and the job losses announced today were lower than expected. The Great Depression? 25% unemployment.

While we’re on the subject of productivity, if what you’ve just read makes sense to you, consider the possbility that I might be able to help you or your organization meet your communications needs.

American Ideals in Bush’s Third Term

obama_in_cairoPresident Obama sometimes sounds a lot like President Bush — and I mean that in the nicest possible way.

Barack Hussein Obama, Cairo University, June 4, 2009:

But I do have an unyielding belief that all people yearn for certain things:  the ability to speak your mind and have a say in how you are governed; confidence in the rule of law and the equal administration of justice; government that is transparent and doesn’t steal from the people; the freedom to live as you choose.  These are not just American ideas; they are human rights.  And that is why we will support them everywhere.

George Walker Bush, second inaugural address, January 20, 2005:

America’s belief in human dignity will guide our policies, yet rights must be more than the grudging concessions of dictators; they are secured by free dissent and the participation of the governed. In the long run, there is no justice without freedom, and there can be no human rights without human liberty…. Eventually, the call of freedom comes to every mind and every soul. We do not accept the existence of permanent tyranny because we do not accept the possibility of permanent slavery. Liberty will come to those who love it.

If the passages were swapped one for the other, neither president would miss a beat.

I’ll second Rich Lowry’s assessment at The Corner:

I don’t want to make exalted claims for the speech. It was a mixed bag and there are limits to the effect any one speech can have. But I think some in the conservative blogosphere are pronouncing it a scandal because they leave out all the good things. Consider: He extolled America as “one of the greatest sources of progress that the world has ever known”; pledged we will “relentlessly confront violent extremists who pose a grave threat to our country”; condemned Holocaust denial as “baseless, ignorant, and hateful”; said “it is a sign of neither courage nor power to shoot rockets at sleeping children, or to blow up old women on a bus”; insisted that “the Arab-Israel conflict should no longer be used to distract the people of Arab nations from other problems”; and called for more democracy, religious freedom, and women’s rights in the Muslim world. And he got a standing ovation.

Photo: White House