Obama Will Not Stop Iran’s Nuke Program — But Surely Israel Will Try

William Kristol argues persuasively that “President Barack Obama [has] made it clear that he’s resigned to a nuclear Iran.”

Appearing on ABC’s Good Morning America, Obama told George Stephanopoulos:

If the question is do we have a guarantee [that] the sanctions we are able to institute at this stage are automatically going to change Iranian behavior, of course we don’t. I mean, the history of the Iranian regime, like the North Korean regime, is that, you know, you apply international pressure on these countries, sometimes they choose to change behavior, sometimes they don’t. …

North Korea has nuclear weapons. Now Obama is telling us that he intends to deal with Iran as we dealt with North Korea. So, as the Iranians follow in the footsteps of the North Koreans and move ahead to get nukes, we’re going to do nothing about it.

But Israel will.  An Israeli air strike on Iranian nuclear facilities now seems inevitable.

I’ve written at length about the difficulties Israel will face in attacking Iran’s weapons program, starting with the need to fly long distances over one or more hostile countries just to get to Iran.  But I don’t see Israel standing by while a nearby Islamic theocracy with a Holocaust-denying nutcase president develops both nuclear weapons and missiles capable of reaching Israel.  Kristol again:

The Obama administration knows that Israel is weighing military action against Iran. This accounts at least in part for the administration’s turn against Israel in recent weeks—its attempt to further isolate the Jewish state in order to put pressure on it not to act.

I think this gets it exactly backwards.  The Obama administration’s hostility to Israel makes an Israeli air strike more likely, not less.

3 thoughts on “Obama Will Not Stop Iran’s Nuke Program — But Surely Israel Will Try

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  2. Yep, good call Kirk. I think it is realpolitik by Obama. I think regardless of our actual policies, our posturing always has to be somewhat less than equanimous toward Israel, in order to appear fair to the Arab world and to have the credibility to possibly drive any peace.

    But realpolitik may be just as he says for us, the US, accepting a nuclear Iran like accepting a nuclear North Korea.

    But realities for Israel are more important to their existence than realpolitik. Best Regards.

  3. I too agree Kirk,

    In fact I have to wonder if we are secretly supplying Israel with the means to execute an attack on Iran. Modern air power is considerably more advanced now than it was in 1980 when Iraq's facilities were struck. I can see unmanned drones with stealth capabilities being used and simply crashed afterward, a one way trip is feasible in that scenario. If it had stealth capabilities they would have a hard time blaming any one with out proof.

    Sounds like a Tom Clancey Novel but it would be a best case scenario for all of us. It would explain why Obama is struggling with Israeli relations too. Maybe it's all just a smoke screen God knows he's good at making smoke screens.

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